米国雇用統計は市場のコンセンサスを超えて改善を示す!

昨日、米国労働省から米国雇用統計が発表されています。統計のヘッドラインとなる非農業部門雇用者数は季節調整済みの系列で見て前月から+203千人増加し、失業率は0.3%ポイント低下して7.0%を記録しました。まず、New York Times のサイトから、長くなりますが、第1報の記事を引用すると以下の通りです。

U.S. Economy Adds 203,000 Jobs, as Unemployment Falls to 5-Year Low
he economy added 203,000 jobs in November, a bit better than expected, as the unemployment rate fell to 7 percent, the lowest in five years.
While the return of hundreds of thousands of federal employees following October's government shutdown may have exaggerated the move in the unemployment rate for November, the continuing payroll gains suggest the economy has picked up at least a modicum of momentum very recently.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg before the Labor Department announcement had expected an increase of 185,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate falling by 0.1 percentage point to 7.2 percent.
Payrolls are tracked using data gathered from employers, while the unemployment rate is based on a separately survey of households.
On Wall Street, the monthly report on the labor market is by far the most closely watched economic indicator, but the November data created more anticipation than usual.
That's because the Federal Reserve seems poised to begin slowly easing back on its stimulus efforts. While the move had been expected in September, it was put off amid mixed economic data instead of the sustained signs of improvement policy makers want to see. The delay by the central bank caught Wall Street off guard three months ago.
With a spate of recent positive data, economists said a move by the Fed had become more certain, either later this month or more likely early next year. The latest figures on hiring come in the wake of more robust data for economic growth and jobless claims on Thursday and a report on Monday showing increased activity at factories.
While welcome news for job seekers, a healthier labor market is likely to be viewed more warily by investors and traders, at least in the short term.
Stronger economic growth and employment gains should bolster corporate earnings and therefore stocks over time, but speculators fear a quick Fed tapering could sap the stock market's recent momentum. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index is up more than 25 percent in 2013. In premarket trading after the Labor Department data came out, stocks were higher.
Although the holiday shopping season seems to have gotten off to a mixed start, the retail sector added 22,000 jobs last month. Manufacturers, which are closely watched as a bellwether for the broader economy, hired 27,000 workers. And the overall participation rate rose 0.2 percentage point to 63 percent, reversing a decline in recent months.
Even as the overall unemployment rate fell, the situation does remain desperate in some pockets of the labor market.
For example, the unemployment rate among workers aged 16 to 19 remains above 20 percent. And for workers with less than a high school diploma, the jobless rate stood at 10.8 percent.

いつものお断りですが、第1報を引用していますので、その後、と言うか、現時点では、差し替えられている可能性があります。続いて、いつもの米国雇用統計のグラフは下の通りです。上のパネルは非農業部門雇用者数の前月差増減の推移とそのうちの民間部門、下のパネルは失業率です。いずれも季節調整済みの系列であり、影をつけた部分は景気後退期です。全体の雇用者増減とそのうちの民間部門は、2010年のセンサスの際にかなり乖離したものの、その後は大きな差は生じていません。

非農業部門雇用者の前月差増加に関して、市場の事前コンセンサスが200千人弱でしたから、わずかとはいえ、これを上回り、さらに、失業率も0.3%ポイントも低下して7.0%に達しましたので、従来から米国の雇用は堅調と私は考えていましたが、この雇用統計はさらに強い数字と受け止めています。問題は、米国連邦準備制度理事会 (FED) がこの雇用統計を見てQE3を早めに終了すると判断するかどうかです。ハト派のイエレン副議長が来年に FED 議長に昇格しますので、日銀が失敗したような早過ぎる金融政策転換はないものと市場も私も考えていますが、もしも、QE3が我が国の日銀の異次元緩和に先立ったとしても、米国の成長鈍化に伴う所得効果は我が国経済にマイナスの影響を及ぼす可能性は十分あるものの、為替がさらにドル高円安に動けば、所得効果を打ち消す方向で価格効果が現れる可能性があります。少なくとも日本経済に対しては、米国雇用統計が順調に改善を示しQE3が終了するとしてもそれほど悲観的になる必要はないと考えてよさそうです。

次に、日本の経験も踏まえて、もっとも避けるべきデフレとの関係で、私が注目している時間当たり賃金の前年同月比上昇率は上のグラフの通りです。ならして見てほぼ底ばい状態が続いていて、サブプライム危機前の3%超の水準には復帰しそうもないんですが、底割れして日本のようにゼロやマイナスをつけて、デフレに陥る可能性は小さそうに見えます。