実に堅調な米国雇用統計のグラフィックス!

日本時間の昨夜、米国労働省から7月の米国雇用統計が発表されています。先日発表された米国GDP統計でも4-6月期の年率成長率が4%に達し、米国経済の好調さを見せつけられただけに、雇用統計も注目されていたところです。ヘッドラインとなる民間非農業部門雇用者数は季節調整済みの系列で前月から+209千人増加し、失業率も前月からやや上昇したものの6.2%と6%台前半を維持しています。まず、Los Angeles Times のサイトから記事を引用すると以下の通りです。

July's solid job growth shows economic recovery is advancing
July's employment report showing net growth of 209,000 jobs was below expectations and a sharp tail-off from the previous month, but still represents a solid gain that shows the recovery from the Great Recession is advancing, economists said.
"It's better," Kevin Logan, chief U.S. economist at HSBC Bank, said of an economy growing at about a 2.5% annual rate. "It could be much better, but at least it's improving - even if slowly."
July was the sixth straight month that the economy added more than 200,000 net new jobs. That hasn't happened since the dot-com boom in 1997.
The unemployment rate ticked up by a tenth of a percentage point to 6.2% after hitting its lowest level since 2008 in June. But the rate still was down significantly from 7.3% a year earlier.
The Labor Department also slightly revised up the job growth figures from May and June by a total of 15,000 positions.
That means the economy has added an average of 245,000 net new jobs over the last three months and about 230,000 a month so far this year. The economy averaged 194,000 net new jobs a month in 2013.
But the jobs report also demonstrated that the labor market still has some weak points.
The labor force participation rate remained at 62.9% in July, near an all-time low. The number of people out of work for more than six months was essentially unchanged last month at 3.2 million. And wage growth continued to be weak.
Average hourly earnings rose just a penny to $24.45 and only increased 2% over the previous year, barely keeping up with inflation.
"Until we see real wage growth, we're not really seeing the improvement we need to see," said Tim Hopper, chief economist for TIAA-CREF, one of the nation's largest money managers.
Given the weakness in some of those other labor market indicators, Hopper said, Federal Reserve policymakers are unlikely to start raising the central bank's key short-term interest rate until late next year.
Jason Furman, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said the jobs report was encouraging but noted in a blog post that there was more work to do.
"Looking at a range of indicators of unemployment, it is clear that we are far into the economic recovery - and that progress has been broadly shared - but we are not all the way there yet," he said.
Still, Friday's jobs report was another sign that the the recovery is back on a positive track after a scare during the winter.
The economy grew at a robust 4% annual rate from April through June, the Commerce Department reported this week.
Much of that growth came from consumers and businesses catching up on activity lost during the first quarter, when the economy sharply contracted at a 2.1% annual rate.
Other economic data also are improving. Consumer spending rose 0.4% in June, up from 0.3% the previous month, the Commerce Department said Friday.
Personal income also increased 0.4% in June, the same pace as in May.
Consumers in July said they were more positive about their current financial situation than at anytime since 2007, according to survey results released Friday.
Still, the monthly consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters dropped to 81.8 last month from 82.5 in July.
"The slow and uneven pace of the recovery in jobs and incomes during the past five years has made consumers unwilling to put much stock in favorable economic forecasts until repeatedly confirmed by positive realizations," said Richard Curtin, the survey's chief economist.
"What may have been termed a skeptical viewpoint in an earlier era is now regarded as a more practical 'show-me' state of mind," he said.

かなり長いんですが、まずまずよく取りまとめられている印象があります。続いて、いつもの米国雇用統計のグラフは下の通りです。上のパネルは非農業部門雇用者数の前月差増減の推移とそのうちの民間部門、下のパネルは失業率です。いずれも季節調整済みの系列であり、影をつけた部分は景気後退期です。全体の雇用者増減とそのうちの民間部門は、2010年のセンサスの際にかなり乖離したものの、その後は大きな差は生じていません。

失業率こそ前月から0.1%ポイント上昇したものの、水準としては6%台前半の低さですし、何よりも非農業部門雇用者が今年2月から6か月連続で前月差+200千人超の増加を続けており、米国の雇用は順調な伸びを示し堅調と受け止めています。過去1年12か月の月平均で見ても雇用者数は+200千人を超えており、逆に、7月の雇用増はここ1年くらいの平均的な姿とすら言えます。失業率の上昇も誤差範囲、または、景気拡大初期の労働市場への参入の増加を反映したものであり、後ろ向き先行きが懸念される失業増ではありません。ですから、本日、米国商務省から発表された個人所得も今年に入ってから直近の6月まで前月比プラスを続けており、個人消費も寒波の後は2月以降6月までプラスを記録しています。日本のように景気拡大が企業部門から家計部門に波及するのと違って、米国では家計部門から企業部門へ波及しますから、米国景気はいい循環に乗った可能性が高いと考えるべきです。金融の量的緩和の縮小ないし終了の議論が米国連邦準備制度理事会 (FED) でさらに加速するものと考えられます。

また、日本の経験も踏まえて、もっとも避けるべきデフレとの関係で、私が注目している時間当たり賃金の前年同月比上昇率は上のグラフの通りです。ならして見て、ほぼ底ばい状態が続いている印象です。逆に言えば、サブプライム危機前の+3%超の水準には復帰しそうもないんですが、同時に、底割れして日本のようにゼロやマイナスをつけて、デフレに陥る可能性は小さそうに見えます。